Your assessment that Ariad "would need to raise cash" by year end is incorrect. In it's most recent CC the company said it expects a year end cash position of $44-46mm. So while they may indeed raise additional funding (most likely through a AP534 partnership), the situation is not nearly as dire as you portend.
You have also insisted that the company has to raise cash in order to fund the upcoming AP534 trial. Imo, you are again incorrect. In a recent post on this board, you stated "A pivotal 534 study is going to cost $30 - 40 million." Is this more hyperbole on your part or do you have some facts to support your claim?
I'm wondering how many patients you think will be in the upcoming trial? To spend $30-$40mm you'd be talking about a 1,500 patient, multi-arm, head to head trial and I just don't think that's what we are looking at. My expectation is that the trial will be in the 400 patient range and cost around $26k per patient or somewhere in the $10mm range which, despite your "feelings" to the contrary, is hardly sufficient to warrant your continued insistence the company is about do a surprise financing.
