Biotech Values

[drbio45]

I am not worried about the US right now.

They did a deal with Servier, the company doing 300 million a year in revenues right now. Servier's twice a day sachet comes off patent in 2015. As you say the royalty they are paying OLGX is low. The cost to produce the pill will be less than the twice a day sachet.

It will be in Servier's best interest to get OLGX's drug on the market as soon as possible before their drug comes off patent. The drug should be ready to be launched in 2012. It will be in Servier's power to stop selling the sachet and convert everyone to the once a day pill. Because it will be a lot more consumer friendly to take a once a day pill vs a twice a day bad tasting sachet, sales will probably grow faster than the sachet has.

It is easy to see a mid single digit royalty on an immediate 300 million in sales. The European patent goes through 2024.

Just based on the European revenue stream the stock is extremely cheap.

YOU KNOW EVERYTHING.

I am valuing the US as zero even though it should have some value to someone.

catastrophic risk from hyper allergic reactions in europe.

This catastrophic risk, as you call it, slowed down the sales ramp when it was first discovered but sales have been growing very nicely since that event. I guess the risk isn't that catastrophic. the rash may have come from the ranelate in the protelos product. That salt is not used in any other product.