Several observations regarding your estimates:
1) You are basing your calculations on revenues - then assuming (unstated) that a biomass project generates the same cash flow per dollar (profit on revenue after expenses) as an apartment building - this is a huge assumption and likely not accurate. While apartment buildings generally generate solid positive cash flow, a biomass project has many more "moving parts: - cost of fuel, transportation costs, etc. So a biomass project generating $100 million per year in revenues might even show losses, where an apartment building may be showing good cash flow.
2) LLEG does not own 100% of the Berlin project. The latest information seems to indicate LLEG has about a 37% interest. It is yet to be seen whether this ownership interest remains undiluted after the required financing as obtained for constructing the plant.
3) What I believe to be an optomistic yet reasonable estimate goes as follows: $100 million in revenues generates about a 10% net cash flow (EBITDA) or $10 million. LLEG warrants a 20 mulitple based on other projects in the works => $200 milllion fair market value. LLEG owne 37% of the project => $74 million value for LLEG. 3 billion shares => $.025 PPS.
I know this sounds disappointing to all those who are looking for $1-10 in the future, but at this time I think something in the $.02 range is much more realistic and avoids the semblance of touting "to the moon" when we actually may get to the top of Mt. Washington - a very good accomplishment, but not the moon.
I would be very happy to see $.02 in the near term - then hope for more as more projects are annouced, permitted and constructed, thereby increasing revenues, cash flow and PPS.
GLTA Longs
AI
