<<<I think (it's my opinion) that TEVA is very likely based on what I have read.>>.
Given what is out there to read, it must be the two statements from Teva management. The same statements that were ridiculed by MNTA management for over a year.
<<<The stock price is just a popularily contest and people vote with their $$$, today the people have declared that TEVA is more likely then not compared with a day ago>>.
But that is the whole advantage that investors have, they look beyond the next 24 hours and can see past the current frenzied opinion. DNDN is probably the best such example of the last few years, ELN was another one. That is how I made my money on MNTA when it fell in the single digits based upon its losing popularity because it was perceived that the FDA would never approve the application. That is how you get triples in relatively short order.
Which is why I asked you the question. Real money is made by looking past the mood of the moment and to the real issues at hand.
Unfortunately, unlike with many other situations in the past where you just knew what was going to happen, I don't know if the FDA will ease up on Teva and give their application an approval. They haven't going on 7 years, and they haven't considered Teva's application in a timely basis with MNTA. In fact, what we know from Teva is that they still are not ready to approve it. The application is not just sitting there, it has simply been failed to be approved and Teva is still working on issues with it.
The reason for why I suspect Teva has not been approved after all this time, and as not approved with MNTA was posted in one of my prior posts today in great detail. Basically, neither Teva nor Ampha could produce sufficient information or methodology to even give the FDA a framework to create an approval framework for a molecule like Lovenox. MNTA, however, did just that, and was approved based upon the framework that MNTA technology made possible.
Now the question is, will the FDA lower the bar for Teva, and can Teva fit itself into that framework? I'm sure they are trying mighty hard. I'm sure the FDA will listen and give them a chance. But I don't see how Teva does it without the FDA bending and lowering the bar. Teva's Lovenox is not the same as MNTA's lovenox. I could not in good conscience have a family member of mine interchangeably use Teva's Lovenox without clinical trials as if it were brand name Lovenox or MNTA Lovenox. Can the FDA get beyond this?
I wish I could answer that question for you with more certainty. But, at the current price, even if the FDA decides to lower the bar for Teva because they've done an otherwise acceptable, if not up to MNTA par job, then the share price is not far from bottom. On the other hand, if the FDA sticks to the rigors it set, which from all the documentation we have is a higher standard than Teva can possibly meet using the methodologies and technologies they have employed, the upside from here is 3, 4, 5x, not including M356 or M118.
That makes for a good risk reward if you look past the next trading day. More speculative than I usually like. I like certainty. Like I knew MNTA would be approved, which is why I originally invested. Now I stay invested only because the current price represents a good portion of the downside, and M356 provides a large amount of upside.
I appreciate your perspective from your investing technique, which is more short term trading. I've just rarely made money trading on a day to day basis. I've done very well on a few special moments a year, but that is just not my forte.
Which is why I am more interested in reality as to where the stock price is in comparison to the downside, the potential upside, and the reality as to whether or not the present fear, uncertainty and doubt is real, feigned, or just overblown.
According to you, it is perception from information provided by an analyst who was quoting the Teva CEO and the Teva CFO from publically available (and in fact heard by many on this board statements) statements, and all this in the midst of insiders automatically selling to pay off their taxes.
Does the market know something? No. Not anymore then when MNTA "surprisingly" got approval from out of nowhere and the shares skyrocketed to $26. Is the market anymore accurate now? Probably not. I've seen leaks happen from the FDA, but all in all, the FDA is very good (compared to most) in not leaking information. That is how DNDN goes from $2.50 to $40 in short order, as an example. How MNTA went from a TECHNICAL downtrend and nearly doubled overnight and then lost 30% just as quick.
Tinker
