Semi, thanks, I wanted to check up on you guys since the SI intc thread has been overrun by all the intc shorts. To get back on topic, I think that AMD & Intc will do well in '03 unless we have a double-dip recession. All the computers bought in the late 90's will be breaking down soon and fixing them will be more expensive than purchasing new ones.
C
I think that intel is even better positioned for recovery going forward, then most believe. Why? Cost Redction. This is speculation of course, but based on previous start-up I've done, when you start up a new Process, you pretty much ignore cost. All the PE's care about is getting the durned thing working. Nobody even looks at cost.
Once you get the Process stable, and yields are up to expectations, the PE's job shifts a little to Sustaining, Cost Reduction, and Process Improvement. From what I've seen.... in that order.
It appears that intel's 0.13u Proces is now "stable", so I would guess that major cost reduction focus is starting, if not already started. I expect significant cost savings for the next few quarters at least.
Since AMD is still seems to be wringing whatever speed is left out of 0.18u, I doubt there is much cost reduction savings available on that Process anymore, and If AMD follows the same "just get it working" strategy with their 0.13u (and they better be), judging on the results so far, I don't believe they can do much cost reduction in the next few quarters unless they get their 0.13u Process stable.
All speculation of course, JMO.
Semi
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