If the JDZ is deemed to be worth developing it will be an extensive and complicated project
"At this stage in the game the best news us speculators can hope for is that the operators are going to proceed to Phase Two. Nothing else will mean all that much".
Posted by: bsk2007
Date: Saturday, January 02, 2010 10:05:16 AM
In reply to: Post # of 219458
If the JDZ is deemed to be worth developing it will be an extensive and complicated project. If it took 42 holes to exploit Akpo we may be looking at 100 holes to develop the JDZ. It is way too early in the game to figure out how many barrels of oil this or that well may produce. They are just now in the top of the first of a 9 inning game.
So far there have been 6 exploratory drills, 5 of which are new. It's very evident that the purpose of these 5 wells is strictly information gathering. None of them can be used for production later on so don't get excited when you read that they have been abandoned. I fully expect each of these holes to be plugged and abandoned when they are done with them, but due to the tremendous pressures they have encountered the challenge for them will be to plug them safely and not compromise the resevoirs in doing so.
The information that will be released in the near future will be sketchy at best simply because Addax wouldn't dare release information to the public that in the future may prove to be false. Addax may release feet of net pay but that figure won't reveal the size of the find or the volume of hydrocarbons that can ultimately be produced. They may release something about finding gas in block 2, or gas and oil in block 4 etc. but it will be nothing specific.
They simpy don't know yet. It will take many many more holes to determine the type of information that you all want to hear.
I don't think anybody would have liked what they read if the results of drilling were released in December. We would have been reading how every hole was a dud and they were all plugged and abandoned.
Instead we are reading about how they have to go back in and do more testing. That's a good thing. It means they liked what they found. It would really be a good thing if they didn't release anything for several months. The longer they wait to release information the more exact that information will be.
I will be excited if they publish that they are going to run more seismic. That means they want a closer look at some target prospects so they can study in fine detail what's down there. Will they run some 4D??....you live for that!
Politicians can say anything they want to about their own prospects. The problem with this is their information isn't very reliable because they only know partial information. Leaks aren't much more reliable because the sources don't know the whole story either. The only reliable source of information is what is put out by Addax/Sinopec.
Since Addax and Sinopec are the operators they are held legally liable for what they release to the public, so they will only release information that is absolutely, 100% provable. Since not much of anything has been proven yet they aren't going to risk a massive lawsuit by spilling their guts on what they think is down there.
At this stage in the game the best news us speculators can hope for is that the operators are going to proceed to Phase Two. Nothing else will mean all that much.
I appreciate the efforts of Peter Ntephe. He is going way beyond the extra mile in trying to keep us stock speculators informed.
I'm just playing around with the bold and color features. I wish purple was available.
I hope the Vikings can get Sam Bradford in the draft. He could be groomed under Favre for a year and then take over.
Happy New Year.
bsk
