My final dots:
This is a snapshot of how I am viewing the ongoing current events based on the information we have been fed along with some due diligence that hasn't been posted on this board.
A geologist extremely familiar with our very blocks believed blocks 1 thru 4 held 6 to 8 billion barrels of oil as his best, middle of the road, estimate.
The Chinese entered the JDZ scene during the same month they entered the AKPO. The AKPO infrastructure was designed to take on more than what currently exists in that field. I believe Total was involved in the entire JDZ picture the day SEO signed up the Chinese as a partner.
I believe the Chinese bought Addax for their JDZ and Taq Taq properties. The rest was maturing and not very significant to the buyer.
I believe the highly specialized technical team that assisted ERHC in picking out their EEZ blocks was made up of the AKPO team. That would be the Chinese, Total and Petrobras.
I believe the drilling plan all along was simply to prove up a working hydrocarbon kitchen and they didn't make an attempt to find oil. I think we have a giant AKPO on our hands and the AKPO team will become the master developer of blocks 1 thru 4 (note: JDZ wide development).
Prior to OBO being drilled, Chevron estimated it would take 60 days to drill. It took 62 days to drill.
It was estimated to take 40 days per drill in blocks 2,3 and 4 and took about 30 days to drill each well. BSK touched on the limited drilling budget and the inexperienced team doing the work.....I am thinking they did EXACTLY what they intended on doing....to the "planned depth" they set out to drill. The planned depth did not go after oil....just scratch the gas cap to make sure it was hydrocarbons and not sea water. I think its important to remember that they drilled about 1000 meters shy of what the OBO was drilled to and the wells took less than half the time it took on OBO.
The Chevron/Total deal probably got underway (read: negotiations) sometime after the first wells were drilled blocks 2 and 4. An agreement was signed in July and the JDA is predicting they won't approve the deal for a couple of months yet. Yes, a couple of months.
I believe the JDA have a big piece of news to deliver to the world once the master development scheme/plan is intact. I also believe the master development plan is very far along and the final team (Chinese/Total/Petrobras?) most definately WON'T include ERHC Energy. I believe ERHC is in this to turn a dollar for SEO.....make that multiple dollars.....and when the JDA announces the final team....we'll be well along in a deal and the JDA's approval of said deal will be the very last loose end (read: contingency of deal) to sew up to make it happen.
Note that Chevron and Total did all their work first....and now simply await the JDA's approval. You can bet they had the head nod before negotiations began.
This type of development plan with the above stated team....will truely be deserving of world wide recognition. It will be a Godsend for the little country of Sao Tome and that is why they have kept their mouths shut as the final team is being formulated. This 6 month extension was nothing more than getting the final team in order IMHO.
ERHC and its managment has done a major dis-service to its long time shareholders casting doubt about the prospects all while knowing what they really have. They haven't been working in our best interests IMHO.....but rather for the final teams best interest. You can bet, however, that the majority shareholder knew every move being made and the minority shareholders have most definately been oppressed in all areas of this investment.
David Bovell's apparent departure from ERHC is very telling (remember....he's VP of corporate development and he recently got caught working alongside his old company before he became an ERHC employee). But as IMPORTANT is David Bovells hedging on his taped $10 comment. There is no way he wouldn't remember EXACTLY what he said during that taped conference/roadshow....as some of us shareholders made a huge deal out of his words. His lying during the shareholder meeting and stating he was misquoted and he had said $5 was total BS and IMHO a great deal of attention should be paid to that comment.
When he originally made the $10 comment some of us thought it was a negotiation tactic made in the publics eye telling the buyer to up the ante cause SEO wasn't going to accept the offer. I continue to believe this was the case. His hedge (following drilling might I add) makes me believe we are looking at a deal that lies between his first comment of $10 and his later hedge of $5. I will pick $7.75 as the final deal SEO will (or has ?) agreed to.
A crazy and ridiculous amount??? Read the volume of hydrocarbons I posted the geologist expected to find on blocks 1 thru 4 and then decide if this figure is crazy or not. I don't think it is.
Tryoty...unlike you I haven't waivered in my impression of this co's plan for years. I continue to believe SEO came very close to selling ERHC last November. I believe SEO wasn't satisfied so the buyer(s) decided to throw in the OKI East to see if they could justify SEO's asking price. Yes, SEO will sell (if he hasn't already decided that - very good chance he has) and everything in between was just as it sounded - - BS. (I'm talking about their long preached about stated growth strategy [fools gold]).
Yep.....I pick $7.75 as the end game. Just over half way between David Bovells sole statement about the co's value followed by his hedging/lie of that statement.
When??? Well, if the JDA is going to take a couple of months to approve the CVX/Total deal.....SEO's deal will likely get the JDA's approval at the same time. That doesn't, however, mean that we won't go thru all of the motions (even voting on a deal) between now and the JDA's announcement.
I continue to hear the fat lady (advanced stage of singing) as she nears the tunnels exit ramp......and I'll be watching for ERHC's PR that might as well start out with SURPRISE! SURPRISE! SURPRISE!.
This is strictly my view/opinion based on the available information and what I've been able to dig up. As noted....its a big ending with a handsome payday and that magical carrot is dangling much closer than it has in the past IMHO.
SEO will be the deal maker....not ERHC. Again, he will not base his deal on the co's shareprice....rather the ESTIMATED barrels of oil or oil eqivalancy as provided by the NSAI.
Goodluck fellow shareholders....
BB
