Hard to Treat Diseases (HTDS)

[abracky]

Looks good:


By: glhotdogs
31 Jan 2005, 06:17 PM EST
Msg. 3495 of 3495
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Hi found this awhile back and in my misery over PARS I forgot to post it ..
Below is a link that explains the risks of investing really long term in biotechs especially new one or two pony biotechs. I cut out the part about %s below but the whole article is worth the read in my opinion. HTTD's business model of selling the patents before phase III seems all the more sound except that the Pharmas also know the risks very well I would think. A pretty good discount would be required to do the deal. Still a lot less risk.
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http://www.ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/nextboard.cgi?board=SRAM
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Those risks can be truly breathtaking: Only 11% of drugs that enter Phase 1 studies ever make it to approval. This number gets even worse when you consider that many drug approvals are follow-ons to already-approved drugs (like pediatric formulations) and thus are double-counted in that number. Stripping these out of the equation reduces the odds of approval to something on the order of 6% -- not very good.
Consequently, you have to know where in the development process those pipeline drugs are, and what that means in terms of risks. Clinical trials for drugs are divided into three phases, with each phase designed to learn more about the safety and efficacy of the drug. Roughly speaking -- and including follow-ons -- only 18% of drugs in Phase 2 get eventual approval, but almost 46% of Phase 3 drugs meet that goal. That's a considerable difference that highlights the relative risks involved.
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Regards The Hotdog