Lennar Corp Class A (LEN)

[Santa Barbara Broker]

Re-analysis...which coming from me on this stock is about worthless. But anyway....

I thought by watching the trend and momentum that LEN had moved past it's old bottom support at $14.49 (next rung down $13.73) and moved up a notch to $15.20 making a $15 a share buy relatively safe. Wrong. Again.

I swear that some short traders just love a challenge. There has been nothing but upgrades and good news for LEN for the last month. Every analyst puts (no pun intended) it at the top of the homebuilders "most likely to recover first" list. Consensus is for LEN to announce a (.04) per share loss on September 21st but word on the street is they will kill that number and announce between .05 and .10 cent a share profit. Even S&P data suggests that LEN is a much stronger company internally than when it was trading in the $50s prior to the housing crash and burn. All of which seems to just drive the short interests in toward the stock in droves. Go figure...you would think there would be easier targets. And (lest I start to sound like the weasels at the "cabinet" board), they are probably just trading the channel of support and resistance as well. But it is certainly confounding.

If LEN falls to $13.75 I intend to double up on my current trade (doing what is probably the second dumbest move one can make in trading...averaging down). I have already made the dumbest move which is to remove the 10% stop behind the shares I bought Tuesday. But there is only so long a stock can bear up against an overwhelming trend to trade higher in an obviously improving housing sector. I may even add a thousand shares if it dips below $14.49 this afternoon. I hate to be a contrary indicator, but there you are. I just want everyone else here trading to know what I am doing so they can plan accordingly...and do the opposite. Boy, am I glad I abandoned the AAPL trade...making $500-$2000 bucks a day with little or no risk. No sense sticking with that plan....

SBB