Tax, Taxes & the IRS

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WSJ= Opinion= "Liberal Tax Revolt"

Some Democrats decide they prefer lower rates. Obama isn't one of them.



There's nothing like the prospect of an electoral rout to concentrate the incumbent mind, and so all of a sudden rank-and-file Democrats in Congress are saying maybe they shouldn't let the 2003 tax rates expire after all. Now if they can only persuade their Speaker of the House, the Treasury Secretary and President Obama.

The revelation that tax increases could hurt the economy has recently been heard from Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and, most surprising, even from Kent Conrad of North Dakota. On a scale of unlikely events, this is like the Pope coming out against celibacy. As Senate Budget Chairman, Mr. Conrad has rarely seen a tax increase he didn't like, but this week he averred that "As a general rule, you don't want to be cutting spending or raising taxes in the midst of a downturn."

.Over in the House, Bobby Bright of Alabama even dared to defend the rich Americans who Democrats have been pounding for years. "I don't care if it's the wealthiest of the wealthy. You don't raise their taxes," he told The Hill newspaper. "In a recession you don't tax, burden and restrict." Better don the body armor on your next visit to the Speaker's office, Bobby.

Even Jerrold Nadler, a liberal from central casting, is worrying publicly that the tax hike will hit his New York constituents too hard. And he's certainly right given that the combined top state and federal income tax rate will be close to 54% in 2011 in New York City. Mr. Nadler is proposing—seriously—to adjust the income tax brackets based on regional cost of living so fewer New Yorkers pay the rates Mr. Nadler has spent a decade saying "the rich" should pay. How about if we compromise and keep rates lower for both Nebraska and New York?

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sen. Kent Conrad
.These are hardly supply-side conversions, but they're a start. The economic recovery is far from robust, and socking it with one of the largest tax increases in history in January is not going to make anyone more eager to invest or create new jobs. Even Lord Keynes opposed raising taxes in a recession, and good Keynesian Democrats like the late economist Walter Heller persuaded JFK to cut tax rates in the 1960s. Those cuts kicked off that decade's economic boom. Only in the age of Obama have Democrats convinced themselves that the best "stimulus" is higher spending and higher taxes.

The nearby table shows how tax rates are scheduled to jump on January 1. Democratic leaders say they want to preserve the lower rates on individuals making less than $200,000, but that still means raising them on the Americans most likely to take the risks that spur economic growth. Mr. Obama and Nancy Pelosi think they can play their usual class war card to justify raising taxes on the rich, but that's risky political business with unemployment at 9.5%. Who do they think will create new jobs—people making less than $200,000 a year?

The reality is that the increase in the top marginal income tax rate to higher than 41% will hit the most profitable small businesses especially hard. That's because millions of business owners pay individual rates under Subchapter S of the tax code. Today, this means they pay the same top rate as the Fortune 500: 35%. But if the 2003 tax rates expire, they'll suddenly pay more than Goldman Sachs.

.New data from, of all places, the Democratic-run Joint Committee on Taxation show that in 2011 roughly 750,000 taxpayers with net business income will pay the highest marginal rate of 39.6% or the next highest bracket of 36% (up from 33%). About half of the roughly $1 trillion of total net business income will also be reported on those returns. In a stroke, that will make tens of billions of dollars unavailable to invest or to hire new workers.

As for the budget deficit, a new analysis by the Senate Republicans on the Finance Committee finds that even if all the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are made permanent, the share of national output that goes toward federal income taxes will in every year stay well above the post-World War II average of 8.2%. Income tax receipts will rise gradually to 10% of GDP, even with the current tax rates intact, because as the economy grows the progressive tax code takes a larger share. If tax increases weaken the economy, revenues won't increase as fast as Democrats hope and the deficit won't fall by as much in any case.

Which brings us back to the Speaker, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Mr. Obama, who remain prisoners of their spend-and-tax dogma. Even as the Democratic tax revolt broke into the open yesterday morning, the White House rolled out Mr. Geithner to declare that the tax increases will arrive as scheduled. So the same Mr. Geithner who says the economy is weak enough that we must have new spending "stimulus" says it is strong enough to endure a huge tax increase.

If enough Democrats are serious about their tax revolt, they can roll their leaders and insist on keeping the current rates. Republicans will help them do it, and it would deny the GOP a great election issue. If Democrats on Capitol Hill won't go that far, we trust they'll express their gratitude to Mr. Obama and Mrs. Pelosi for helping to end so many of their political careers in November.