MF4,
Your short position(s) through September may work out for you. I'm expecting a Fall correction.
I don't buy your reason number 2. Who are these Globalists? The people vote. Don't expect "an uptrending market into November".
"China and India ARE growing. SPY500 companies ARE selling overseas, even though the domestic economy still stinks." Parts A & B are correct, but the domestic economy is not in all that bad a shape. We are in a sustainable, but moderate, or tepid even, recovery.
How the government deals with macroeconomic issues will be of paramount importance, but I'm not giving up hope that they will be dealt with at least moderately successfully.