In terms of timing, I think Ariad is perfectly capable of running the P3 trial themselves but there is little advantage in waiting. In fact, from a negotiating standpoint there may be an advantage in getting a deal done before the Rida results are in. My best guess is that they'll try to get something done before ASH.
I realize this sounds obvious but my hope is that Berger focuses on getting a partnership that maximizes the 534 opportunity. In the Merck deal, I think he was more focused on structuring a partnership that fulfilled his goal of building a stand-alone oncology company as opposed to one that maximized shareholder value (although the two goals are certainly not mutually exclusive). Hopefully he's learned a few things from the MRK partnership.
Ironically, while I didn't particularly like the original Merck structure for rida, i think similar terms would work fine for AP534. A deal that requires Ariad to fund 50% of the pivotal 534 registration trial isn't a major concern but running multi-arm trials against Gleevec/Tasigna/Sprycel down the road will be very expensive. Of course, once approved in the 2nd/3rd line, the company should have sufficient revenue to fund its share without further dilution but with Gleevec coming off patent in 2015 and Tasigna and Sprycel moving to front-line, I'd rather see them structure a deal that gets these trials started sooner rather than later.
A deal that generates +100mm upfront and retains 50% of the US would be a good starting place...especially with the right partner...but Novartis and BMS probably aren't a great strategic fit and they are the 2 leaders in CML.
