JBII.. $1.05 Cross post that seems to sum it all up..
It appears to be written by someone that has a grasp of JBII and it' plastic to Oil process.. The JBII has not it seems reverted to infighting and I suspect many posts including this one will disappear before the AM... hank
Posted by: the big guy Date: Wednesday, July 21, 2010 5:21:59 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 59053
Comments on the conference call.
Well, I listened in. No one can accuse me of shooting my mouth off without doing my homework. These are my honest impressions. As I have posted before, I worked for 1 year for a company that was in the business of industrial gases manufactured from the ambient air. Those gases are Oxygen, Nitrogen, and Argon. Air is composed of those components 70%, 20%, 10%, plus some trace elements. We also dealt with Carbon as an industrial by-product. Companies used to process it into a liquid/ solid so that it could be disposed of for environmental reasons, especially in the Oil Sands. We used it as an input to a process, but I forget the output. I think maybe Hydrogen. So you can see, this process is similar.
IMO, it was a good call, but not good enough to start an upward trend. He told investors what they needed to know, but mainly what they already knew or suspected. There was nothing earth-shattering new and he confirmed a few positive things that had been speculation or where we were not sure. So, a pretty good call. One critical detail I don't think he revealed; the date for the stack test. I went for soup once, so I may have missed it... this is what all investors want to know, when production will start. Translation: he does not know. That is NOT good. But, he confirmed many of the details of his process that are good... so he is sticking to his guns.
In my view may of the things in the story and the promises are not believable... that is my personal view, does not have to be yours.
My notes in point form:
- he linked the late filing to the need to uplist. that explains that..
- he mentioned about issuing stock-based compensation in an effort to save cash.. that was not good in my view simply because of what has happened to the stock. as is typical of startups that is used as a lure to hire people or keep people.. does not work unless the stock absolutely flies, and not for the LT.
- he commented about not losing "significant business" in his decision to not focus on the tape business. in my view the whole notion of abandoning the tape business was foolish. This confirms it, because he has lost SOME business (interpolating from what he is saying).
- he stated that the "P2O business is continuing to evolve" from the AGM. Translation: it was not ready for production at the AGM, which was not the impression given.
- the bit about the oxygen sensors and his concern about combustion is very real. Oxygen is the raw fuel for combustion in industry. It is used to fire furnaces, etc. I know from my work at that company that we were extremely anal about control of gases during the process. We were also extremely careful about startup. For example, everything has to be extremely clean. If there is so much as a speck of sand in a pipe, that item can cause a spark and ... KABOOM... We used to Commission and Startup new plant all the time. It took months. I did not know the governing body that watched over or certified this, but there are serious safety concerns here. I don't know who certifies this process, this is an issue for JB.
- the bit about the gas compression system is a bit worrisome. He said that it means a larger plant is more efficient, something which the naysayers have said all along. However, this is exactly analogous to the carbon systems in use in the Oil Sands. It is very necessary. A good step, but what does it add to cost?
- he is just now operating in steady state runs... as i suspected he is figuring out on the fly how to operate/Commission/ startup this thing safely... thought he would have got this far long ago.
- he made a statement about his feedstock, shredded plastic. What is the cost of that input.? what type of feedstock is it? He made a statement about the % of hydrocarbons in the input as being important, something we have talked about here..
- the "plethora of instrumentation" implies he is trying to figure it out... not a really good thing for investors..
- he said he has scheduled a stack test. did NOT say when. That is not good... if he had said a date, I would have said GREAT CC, but he did not. He has left investors hanging...
- blending site stuff was good... then i went to get soup..
- came back talking about financials.. damn. good soup though.
- it is good what he said about the "E".
- he said he is making cash reserves last until they finish P2O. good statement. was obvious anyway..
- his clarification about why he is not selling is good.
- I still don't believe the cost estimate of 200k. nowhere near. much more than that.
- he chose easy questions. in the interests of time he could do nothing else.
so my summary is what we have here is a guy that is focussed on trying to figure out P2O while running out of money. The fact that he has not provided a date is not a good thing. We have no idea when he will produce. We can debate the numbers all we want, there is no end goal.
having said that, he said a number of good things, but that will just quiet debate, i don't think it will lift thestock price. a definitive statement about production would lift the stock price.
as an investor i would be screaming mad that he did not focus on the tape businesss, stabilize, and get P2O going on tthe side... that was the correct thing to do from a business standpoint.
that is all i got..
