Krombacher, I think you are missing the point in a few areas.
First, when XOM bowed out, they sold their interest in block one basically equal to their signature bonus plus the cost of drilling. They retained the 2% of profit oil on their percentage as just an extra or an attempt to get a return on their "cost of funds". The single well drilled by XOM/Chevron was not a blockbuster find like I think they hoped for. Being that neither company has other block percentages close by or any infrastructure next to it, I simply think they moved on to other pastures. It is a big globe out there and both XOM and Chevron can dominate or get their fill of oil in other parts of the world more economically for them.
Second, from what little information we know about the numbers of the buyout price, I am guessing it is closer to Chevron's signature bonus plus drilling expense PLUS some kind of premium for being the operator of the block. Then multiply that by 1.5 or the 50% premium that was stated when Total first rumored interest.
Third, the value of exploration rights change dramatically for each phase of drilling and/or commercial discovery proven. Chevron drilled one exploratory well 4 years ago and 1) DID discover oil (good news) but 2) did not feel it was commercially viable to them as a stand alone well at that time given their infrastructure close by, etc. compared to Chevron's alternatives throughout the globe. This evaluation is different for each company.
Obviously, China feels a greater need for oil and has shown it will pay more than most companies for 'proven' oil. Total's commerciality model is different from XOM/Chevron due to the Apko infrastructure already close by therefore, they will pay more.
All these numbers are fun to explore but aren't fully relevant at this time. If Sinopec goes on to phase II and Total successfully does the Block 1 phase II drilling and together they decide to develop the area to commercial production, then better numbers to use would be the price Sinopec paid to buy into Apko next door (once proven) with comparable estimates of quantities of oil.
I really feel SEO is at least waiting for this stage to get a much bigger payout than selling the rights before developed. I have no idea if SEO or ERHE will try to sell the whole company or just the proven blocks at that time and then play the same game with the EEZ and the remaining JDZ block rights.
All I know is the September deadline is getting closer and closer and phase II drilling could be announced before the deadline arrives. We could also get surprise news of EEZ partnerships at any time without notice so I think ERHE share price will be in a general uptrend from the time the Total news was released last week through the September deadline (IMHO).
Good luck all.
