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Wednesday, July 14, 2010 3:31:07 PM
Brazil's Vale Heads For Major Role In Copper Market
Vale S. A. (NYSE:VALE)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Wednesday 14 July 2010Brazil's Vale SA (VALE, VALE5.BR), the
world's biggest iron-ore producer and second biggest in nickel, has set
its sights on a position among the world's top producers in the burgeoning
copper market.
Vale starts production this year at its Tres Valles copper mine in Chile.
In 2011, it will start up Salobo, its biggest Brazilian copper property,
after almost two decades of research at the Amazon site.
In 2013, it will double Salobo and start up Konkola North mine in Zambia
in a joint venture with African Rainbow Minerals Ltd., or ARM, to produce
650,000 metric tons of copper a year.
By 2016, output is expected to hit one million tons a year, with a
position in the global suppliers' league just behind Codelco, Freeport
McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. and Bhp Billiton PLC.
And more projects are in the pipeline. There is Salobo III, Alemao,
Cristalino and Polo in Brazil's Carajas region, while exploration
continues in Africa's copper belt in a venture struck last year with ARM.
Vale President Roger Agnelli has singled out copper and coal as priorities
in the mining company's diversification program, as power grid and
infrastructure needs in emerging countries cry out for these minerals.
All told, Vale has announced spending of $3.34 billion on existing copper
projects by 2013.
For analysts, copper is a darling among commodity picks.
"Copper is one of our preferred commodities," said Nomura Securities
analyst Gavin Wood. "It's likely to remain in deficit for the next couple
of years, which could lead to higher prices."
Copper is "one of the best metals for the long term because China doesn't
have enough," said Credit Suisse analyst Luiz Moreira. What China needs
most is iron ore, coal and copper, Vale's three priority minerals, while
it doesn't need steel, stainless steel or aluminum, Credit Suisse said in
a recent report.
In May, Vale sold extensive aluminium, alumina and bauxite operations,
which had been slated for $2.69 billion in new investments, fueling
speculation it may switch more funds into copper. The sales were cited as
a factor in Fitch Ratings' June upgrade of Vale to BBB+ on the company's
"improving competitive position."
Vale has been a midsize copper producer since 2004 because of its Sossego
mine in Para state in northern Brazil, where first-quarter output was
26,000 tons. Copper operations acquired as part of its 2008 takeover of
Canada's Inco added an additional 8,000 tons. But copper still accounted
for just 3.3% of sales in the period.
"Copper is strategic for Vale but the company hasn't yet achieved scale,"
said Renato Antunes of Barclays Capital. Vale's planned growth in copper
"is positive on long-term prospects for copper use in areas including
electricity supply," he said.
Firm copper prices may encourage new projects, such as those seen by Vale,
but there still won't be enough new capacity in coming years to bring the
market into balance, Nomura's Wood said. This is due to massive demand
from China, a net importer representing 40% of global demand of about 18.8
million tons a year, he said.
Vale's move into big-time copper hasn't been easy. Tres Valles, which will
produce 18,000 tons a year over a short 11-year lifetime, has been delayed
over land-rights issues. Salobo overshot time and cost budgets, due to a
complex ore type demanding years of research into an environmentally
friendly hydrometallurgical treatment process.
But the countdown to start up at the giant deposit is now on. Salobo's
initial copper output will be 127,000 tons a year, later to be more than
doubled over a 30-year mining cycle.
Konkola North's initial 50,000 tons a year will double in 2015. The
property is the second-biggest in Zambia's copper belt.
-By Diana Kinch, Dow Jones Newswires; 55 21 2586 6086;
diana.kinch@dowjones.com
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