InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 12
Posts 1040
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 01/22/2009

Re: gbd post# 16275

Monday, 07/12/2010 8:46:53 PM

Monday, July 12, 2010 8:46:53 PM

Post# of 42999
At the risk of being repetitious and redundant on the 2%, I will attempt to clear it up using materials found on EEGC's website. If someone has better sources, please post the information and source.

Anyway, page 2 of the RPS Energy report, referred to as Competent Persons Report Part 1 in the Project Update tab of the EEGC website, says the following: "The Risk Factor for Prospective Resources (my note: Bellevue (2%), Thunderbolt (0.72%), etc.) means the chance or probability of discovering hydrocarbons (my note: doesn't distinguish between oil or natural gas) in a sufficient quantity for them to be tested to the surface."

There is a somewhat longer definition in the Final Report on 13/98 presented by EEGC to MRT, also on the website. It says on page 61 (note: Chance of Success is the same as Risk per the tables):

The risking has been calculated using a play risk and a prospect specific risk. The play risk pertains to essential conditions (Reservoir, Seal, and source/maturity/migration timing existing within the basin as a whole. Two play type risks have been calculated. These are the Pre-Carboniferous and the Post-Permian unconformity sequences. The prospect specific risk is based on individual risks pertaining to the specific trap definition, reservoir,charge/migration and seal competence and is dependent on the play working. The overall geological Chance of Success (COS) is the product of the play and the prospect specific risk.


Folks, lets also consider a test of reasonableness. At only $5 per barrel profit, the 447M barrels inThunderbolt/Bellevue would be worth $2B+ versus the $10M market cap of EEGC. Is the market really THAT inefficent??

Fact of the matter, we are here betting on the 2%. We think/hope the 2% will come in, kind of like the lottery; if not, we lose everything (except the net value of whatever rights we may obtain to flare gas technology). If Bellevue/Thunderbolt come in, we make a bundle, depending on how much of the gross margin we have to give to those who finance the exploratory drilling.

The trick is to get someone 'in the boat' with us, funding the risk in return for a reward. Let's hope Sure is able to find someone.

Join the InvestorsHub Community

Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.