FuelCell Energy Inc (FCEL)

[ryall12]

expect movement again soon. this is gearing up for a nice pinch play. monday should test the 1.25/1.3 level. would of been better to hold 1.16 on the close but the chart is still looking ready.

even if it does not break monday it should by thursday. looking for a move to 1.70 or so if it breaks with a possible pause around 1.50, could even hit 2.00 soon if 1.70 falls quickly. will have to see how strong the pinch is and how much room is left after it breaks past 1.30.

remember those warrants expire on the 23rd for all intents and purposes. that is 2 weeks away. i expect pps will be well above 1.25 by then to entice the holder into exercising. fcel will want that additional 4m or so and the holder will make out nicely with some quick flips at the 1.70 or so level. a nice .50 per share gain on 3.6m shares.
in other words id expect float to increase by 3.6m from the warrants but do not see the financier selling any of the other shares any time soon. there was a reason they invested so much in the first place and it was not to see their 1.25 a share sit at this level for long. in fact id have to think by year end this will be fighting back in the 2s trying to reach 3. but that is pure conjecture.
the chart is showing a break of 1.3 coming next week with an initial target of 1.5 to 1.7, maybe higher. anything past that will need an updated analysis. then again if pps does not break 1.30 and hold by thursday, id sell.