Tornado Alley (PROG)

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Many THANKS to Professor Gerald Busald
For Teaching Our Kids Reality

Study says Texans smart in Lotto ways

By JOHN W. GONZALEZ
Houston Chronicle

SAN ANTONIO -- Picture a stack of copy machine paper 8.5 miles high. On one -- just one -- of those sheets of paper is a set of winning numbers.

Now imagine how difficult it would be to pick that one page out of the stack on a single try. That's what it's like trying to win the 11-state Mega Millions lottery game, whose top prize carries the staggering odds of 1 in 135 million.

So goes the lesson taught to statistics classes at Alamo Community College San Antonio College, where some students have become so fascinated with lottery odds -- and the public's relentless attempts to defy them -- they've developed a lottery-intelligence quotient called "Mega-Q" to show which Mega Million states have the wisest players.

Their conclusion: Texans are among the smartest because they spend the least per capita. But rather than deliver their finding as a cold statistic, they came up with "Mega-Q" to give it more impact.

"We don't spend nearly as much as New York and some of the other states," said student Frank Rodriguez, who said he was amazed to learn about lottery odds.

"I never knew how much of a long shot it really was. Think of that stack of papers 8 miles high, and picking one of those papers. There's virtually no way that you're going to win any of that -- nothing, ever," Rodriguez said.

The premise behind the spring semester exercise was that "Mega Millions spending is not the most intelligent use of money, given the 1 in 135 million chance of winning the jackpot," said Professor Gerald Busald, a longtime Texas Lottery critic. Busald and some of his previous math students have campaigned successfully for significant changes in the way odds are disclosed to the public.

"The thing that is different about this one is, we didn't say they made any error. We're just pointing out something," Busald said Tuesday.

"We're finally realizing that when you have such a tiny chance of winning, you're throwing your money away. There's better things to spend a dollar on," the professor said.

Although Texas has the fourth-highest ticket sales among the 11 Mega Millions states -- behind New York, New Jersey and Illinois -- Texans still were among the smartest, the students concluded. On a per capita basis, during the first six months of Mega Millions in Texas, only residents of Washington spent less on the game than Texans, the students determined. New Jersey residents and New Yorkers rated lowest on the students' intelligence scale because of their high per capita spending.

In the six months ending June 1, Washington residents spent $4.78 apiece on Mega Millions, while Texans spent $5.38. For comparison, residents of New Jersey spent $15.05 and New Yorkers $13.28 -- all for what the students determined to be a poor wager.

Residents of Georgia and Michigan also got low Mega-Q ratings because of their relatively high spending, while Virginia, Illinois, Ohio, Maryland and Massachusetts had moderate ratings.

Busald said Texas even shows its smarts when jackpots swell to tens of millions of dollars. While most other states record large spikes in sales, Texas' sales have been relatively stable, Busald said.

"In Massachusetts, when the jackpot gets large, they spend more. Therefore, their Mega-Q goes down. On the other hand, Texas and Washington, when the jackpot gets large, don't get all shook up at the same rate those other states do, so their relative Mega-Q goes up," Busald said.

"New York and New Jersey, they just pour all their money in there all the time," he said. "Over a third of the sales are from those two states."

"Mega-Q" .. The Level of Intelligence!

Using per capita sales in the 11 state Mega Millions game, San Antonio math students devised a lottery intelligence quotient called "Mega-Q"

Per capita Mega Millions sales in the six months ending June 1, 2004.

New Jersey .. $15.06
New York .. $13.28
Georgia .. $11.65
Michigan .. $10.86
Virginia .. $9.57
Illinois .. $9.53
Ohio ...... $8.91
Maryland .. $8.80
Massachusetts ..$7.50
Texas .. $5.38
Washington .. $4.78

States Mega-Q Rating

http://lottoreport.com/060904Chron.htm