Intel Corp (INTC)

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Elmer, Re: if AMD is perfectly willing to do vapor launches, why not vapor launch Hammer?

If what the reviewers say is true, then the new 2800+ Athlon won't be available until 2003, or at the earliest, 3 months away. This is approximately the wait time of two metal steppings + validation, or a full poly stepping + validation. In other words, AMD isn't close to getting the bin splits that they need for a real 2800+ launch (2.25GHz, I believe??), but they are hoping for a miracle in 3 months time. As for Hammer, that is beyond even the 3 month horizon. I believe they still have functional issues that need to get resolved, and they are probably a number of months away from coming up with a solution to every nook and corner case that they are seeing in validation. Besides that, the theory is that Hammer is binning at very low frequencies, and something fundamental needs to be changed in the design to give it extra headroom. AMD can't likely review a Hammer that locks up on some occasions, nor can they review a Hammer that clocks at 1.5GHz. It's simply farther out, and even AMD's current projection of a late Q1 "introduction" confirms that. Your point is a good one, but I don't think we can infer disaster based on no Hammer paper launch.

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