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Thursday, 01/20/2005 2:12:44 PM

Thursday, January 20, 2005 2:12:44 PM

Post# of 64738
OT: colon cancer from something not on the McDonald's menu?

First time I am trying to share something like this with the board. In honor of the poor 41 year old CEO of McDonald's who just passed away from colon cancer, I did a model. I converted deaths from cancer of the colon, rectum and anus in 2001 into a death rate and tried to explain the pattern between states in the US. The model explains 83 percent of that pattern and includes 4 items: being age 65 or older (more deaths), having attended at least some college (fewer deaths), the strength of the sun's ultraviolet rays over the year (fewer deaths) and ethanol (alcohol) per capita - spirits (more deaths).

Assuming we can't do much about being age 65 or older or at this stage, about going to college, I held both of these items "constant" which eliminates their influence. Using the remaining two items yields a list of states with the predicted rate of colon cancer deaths. The five states with the highest rates (most deaths per population size) of colon cancer deaths (starting with the most): 1. New Hampshire, 2. Washington, DC, 3. Alaska, 4 Wisconsin, 5. Delaware. The five states with the lowest rate of deaths from colon cancer (starting with the very lowest) are: 1. Hawaii, 2. Texas, 3. Alabama, 4. New Mexico, 5. Oklahoma.

Another name for spirits is hard liquor. It seems to be part of the story of colon cancer. By itself, hard liquor accounts for 12 percent of the pattern of deaths between US states.

There was no connection between colon cancer deaths and beef, cheese, soda pop, eggs, or dairy products. Neither was there a connection with restaurant sales per capita in 2003.




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