Real Estate Bubble

[split710]

lentinman:

especially when viewed back to 06,
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$LUMBER&p=W&st=2006-01-01&en=1913-06-27&id=p73305441565

IMO the housing market and recent spurt in construction both new and remodeling is do to hyped hope, the economy is not getting better.
Being that I am in construction(40+ yrs.) I would relish being wrong, but for the life of me, I cannot find anything solid to build a good scenario on.
The old adage applies "follow the money"


Cash traders indicated that retail dealers and wholesalers aren't completely ready to buy lumber for inventory just yet, but current prices make it worthwhile to run some "what-if" bids by the sellers.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange lumber futures Thursday bounced up from Wednesday's contract lows as investors came in to repurchase previously sold speculative contracts at a profit.

Nearby July settled up $4.10 at $182 for a 2.3% gain. September was $5.80, or 3.1%, higher at $192.80, while November was $3.50, or 1.82%, higher at $195.60.

Traders said the market had become very oversold technically and attractive to buyers.

Cash markets continued to struggle, but there is a little more inquiry about pricing, and a market analyst said this may be what made investors with short positions nervous and sent them into the market to rebuy and lock in their profits.

Cash traders indicated that retail dealers and wholesalers aren't completely ready to buy lumber for inventory just yet, but current prices make it worthwhile to run some "what-if" bids by the sellers.

Further gains could be seen on Friday, but the way the market couldn't hold earlier gains made some wonder if Thursday's action wasn't just a one-day affair.

Dow Jones Newswires published a mill-level price for SPF 2x4s at $180 to $185, unchanged from Wednesday.

As of 15:13 EDT, the July/September spread had traded 81 times in the Globex market in a range from $7.40 to $10.40, premium September, with the last at $10.30 bid.

The September/November spread had traded 115 times in the Globex market from $5.20 to $6.70, premium November, with the last at $6.