I also owned GNVC (took a hit), and also owned HGSI and DNDN (in the single digits; made tons).
You're right. Biotech is risky, and gambling. You never know what you're going to get until the P3 comes out. 90% of the analysts said Benlysta and Provenge would fail. To be honest, it's almost better to go against what the analyst say (which is why I worry about Ridaforolimus in sarcoma).
The difference between Ariad and HGSI and DNDN is that both HGSI and DNDN had novel compounds in giant areas in which both compounds were groundbreaking technology. I don't think the market for Ridaforolimus is groundbreaking (its only maintainence). '534 is more interesting. '113 is another example of a highly targeted compound and very interesting(like '534 and other CML TKIs. I feel like mTORs are more like a primative technology, where it's not really targeting the way Gleevec or '113, or '534 have a specific, unique target which has proven be highly effective.
I do look for a pop in price if Rida is successful. If they ever release the endometrial results before they do the succeed trial, its going to have a big impact on the price of the stock bc it will either give a positive or negative readout on SUCCEED.
I just don't think that you're going to see a massive increase in share price the way you sqw with DNDN or HGSI due to their mTOR.
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