Rambus (RMBS)

[cordob]

Ha ha Cor - I got the 7% sequential increase in royalty right - that's about it!

Hey Will, congratulations

I got the total revenue and profit closer; also knew where litigation was going and apparently it will get worse:(

TMF consensus from a poll I did was 10.5 ct; I voted 7-8 and my spreadsheet said 7.3 ct. Erach Desai had 8 ct. Better than the (other:) analysts, which does NOT make me happy.

We now know that guidance from Eulau is unreliable. Look at that tax rate, he specifically guided 25-27%. It was 38%!
(imo he made a mistake in the 3rd qtr, but is not saying this, has to correct back and all that, heads should roll instead of options flow, that job is so simple I could do it and I would for a fraction of the options and no fixed salary, LOL)

Tax for 2005 expected at 37%, so all back to normal.

Disquieting and not quite resolved yet is the further decrease of deferred revenue. I see it this way, pse correct me somebody if I am wrong (I was in contact with Desai about this, note his questions on the subject):

About qtr4:

 
 contract revenue is          6.0 M 
 cost of contr.revenue        5.5 M (back to normal, close to rev.) 
 decrease of def.revenue      6.1 M 
  
 means: new license rev.     -0.1 M

imo the books were cooked a bit in the 3rd qtr on several points; they cannot do that on the 4th because the auditors/SEC would catch it.


Btw put the CC up on my site as usual:
www.chipstocks.net/rmbs/rmbsCC04qtr4.mp3

Cheers
Cor