After doing a bit of digging on GENZ and that Gaucher's drug, it seems that the manufacturing issue may create some opportunity for Shire's new drug approved in February. Also some time this week PLX is expecting their drug to get a decision from the FDA, so while it may be a one time charge it caused a shortage and may allow 2 competitors to take away from their monopoly. This makes their franchise for Guacher's less valuable then it was 9 months ago, I think the only debate is how much less.
Regarding GENZ I am totally ambivalent but Cerezyme accounted for nearly 30% of their revenue a year ago and Fabrazyme accounted for over 10% - so you have nearly 40% of revenues from a year ago affected by the manufacturing issues.
If PLX gets approval this week that imo would be another negative for GENZ, as Shire starts to ramp up sales and PLX can start to sell their drug in the upcoming weeks. The more I look into GENZ the less responsible the stock buyback seems, especially with their largest and most profitable franchise under attack. I'm sure GENZ doesn't have any major issues in the next year or 2 but if I were management I would be trying to make contingency plans and stockpile whatever cash for a rainy day, "just in case" - if they dont need it in 12 - 18 months then take that cash and buy back shares after the storms blow over.
