Rambus (RMBS)

[cordob]

Skeptic on the royalty growth:

The qyt-on-qtr royalty growth (ex Intel) was 4.4% the previous qtr. Including Intel the same would be reached now with $ 31.4, just a little above my 31.0

If Rambus sees 7% royalty growth, it puts royalty at 32.6.

That would be 10.3% growth of the non-Intel royalty. the only time recently which was higher than that sequentially was 2nd qtr04 at 12%. The quarters before that not much happened.

Where is your 10.3% going to come from? Maybe serdes?? Don't forget we are talking about the royalty pertaining the the 3rd qtr where there is no PCIe penetration yet worth mentioning.
I don't know on the memory side how 3rd qtr would compare with 2nd; rdram pricing and use?

apply the same 7% growth in COGS, you're at 5.0.
the cogs has to do with contract revenue, not royalty. Historically contract revenue has been about the same as cogs however the last qtr was better; I see that as an anomaly which may return to "normal" at least partially. One reason why contract revenue may eb higher is when a project for which there was a license gets cancelled; the money then gets taken off the balance sheet from "deferred revenue" into contract revenue earned w/o costs associated with it.

Deferred revenue decreased from the 2nd into the 3rd quarter by $ 5.5M from $ 34.5M to $ 28.9M; this has not been explained in the CC nor challenged by the analysts.

Cheers
Cor