Stock Whisperer

[Lucky_Charm$]

H-M-I-T information
posted by tvmetguy


HMIT-DD Yields Spec PPS of .06-.07

O/S=3.5 bil

1) "Cowboy Mining" is HMIT's yet unsold reality TV series, what's its worth?

2) NBC's Today Show nets about 500 mil rev/year on 7 days/week newscasts or about 1.4 mil/day with an average of 5 mil viewers/day. NBC gets about 35 mil viewers/week.

NBC's today show revenue: http://www.tvparty.com/50stoday.html

NBC's today show viewers:

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/morning_show_ratings/

3) The most popular cable TV reality show is Discovery's Deadliest Catch. They average about 4 mil viewers/episode for 10 new espisodes:

http://www.buzzbox.com/top/default/preview/cable-ratings-deadliest-catch-comes-off-highs-law-order-ci-up-ju/?id=1094491&topic=deadliest-catch%3Anielsen-ratings

4) However, including re-runs Deadliest Catch plays on Discovery about twice per day, or 14 times per week. If NBC's Today Show generates 1.4 mil/day for new newcasts with 5 mil viewers, "Catch" likely generates about 1.1 mil/new episode with 4 mil viewers or about 10.1 mil/year. However, "Catch" plays about 14 times/week with re-runs. Lets assume viewers for re-runs is way down to 1 mil. Thats about 14 mil viewers/week for "Catch" re-runs. Lets say that Discovery gets about an average of 15 mil viewers/week total for new + re-run, or a little less than half of what NBC's Today Show gets/week. "Catch" is likely generating about 200 mil/year rev for Discovery + DVD sales, so lets say 250 mil. It likely nets about 25% or 60 mil, so has a worth of about 1.2 bil for Discovery using a 20 multiple.

5) If Deadliest Catch, which is the most popular international reality program on the planet, generates about 250 mil per year, even 1/10 of that for something like Cowboy Mining would be 25 mil/year rev. Of course, Cowboy Mining could be a bit bigger than that. I assume all goes well and "Cowboy" can speculatively generate 50 mil/year in rev on ads + DVD sales.

6) If "Cowboy" gets 50/mil year in rev, and earns about 25% net, thats about 12 mil/year earnings for HMIT on hopefully a 5-7 year run. 12 mil/year earnings at a 20 multiple puts its worth at potentially 240 mil dollars.

7) Using my relatively conservative numbers of 200-250 mil worth of "Cowboy" for HMIT, that would be a PPS of about .06-.07 because you take the O/S of 3.5 bil times PPS of .07 and get market cap of about 250 mil.

8) All of my numbers for "Catch" are for the USA only, so adding programming in other countries adds to its worth. "Cowboy" plans to go international too. I really do think "Cowboy" could get to 300-400 mil worth, which would be about .10-.12 PPS for HMIT. Insane! "Cowboy" needs Mike Rowe to narrate.

9) I work in TV
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