That decision pretty much puts AMLN in a situation similar to VRTX, in that they will have the only drug in their class and a virtual monopoly for a few years. I believe the situation is better for AMLN however, because unlike with telaprevir where many HCV drugs are up and coming, and many will have at least as good of efficacy and probably better AE profiles, and the race to remove the existing SoC, exanitide will be the only 1x a week drug, the highest efficacy, years of clinical use on the market, and nothing to dislodge it that will be "better" in any meaningful way, particularly as a pen delivery system for the drug is anticipated in 2012/2013, 1x monthly delivery in works, and even 1x a year in works, and a patch in the works.
The recent news that Roche's drug's efficacy would fall short of exanitide LARS was pretty big, but this gives the field to AMLN for quite some time.
I like monopolies. Not often one can find one that may be available to a company for years to come. But when you do, it usually works out pretty well for the monopoly holding company. Just a matter of seeing what sort of uptake a 1x a week GLP drug will have. I've seen market projections from $1.5-$3 billion a year peak.
Now if only AMLN held 100% U.S. rights like VRTX, but 50% will have to do.
Yes, I've held AMLN since the single digits when the stock blew up on the manufacturing plant issue 12-18 months ago, so I am satisfied to say the least with developments.
Tinker
AI
