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BTH

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Alias Born 06/11/2010

BTH

Re: ariadndndough post# 408

Wednesday, 06/16/2010 11:06:38 PM

Wednesday, June 16, 2010 11:06:38 PM

Post# of 80490
I am saying that they had AP23573 (Defo-Rida) in Phase 2 studies at roughly the same time Wyeth and Novartis had their mTORs in Phase 2 studies.

Ariad, fell way behind because they screwed around with trial design and had to run a Phase 2b study converting the trial over from IV to tablet form. This cost them around 2 years...essentially the 2 years they are now behind with their mTOR (rida).

Regardless of their cash situation being improved, just because they got an infusion of $70 million HARDLY means they are in fabulous shape financially. A pivotal 534 study is going to cost $30 - 40 million. Dough, a '534 trial may be "easy" to design, but it's not INEXPENSIVE. Then, they are going to need to spend another (at least $10-15 million on '113 in the next year)...believe me, Ariad has NO problem spending as much money as they can. At this time next year, we are going to be talking about Ariad being in a precarious position of around $20 million in cash in the bank (assuming no partnership or no Rida payments - yes, you need to assume that Rida trial will not succeed when planning for cash).

I have zero use for Ariad to be in the same position they have been in for the past 2 years - being low on cash, and having investors avoid it like the plague and having the auditors issue a going concern letter.

Harvey-----SIGN A DAMN '534 DEAL AND LEAVE YOUR EGO AT THE DOOR.

They need to partner to:

1. Free up money for '113
2. So shareholders are still waiting for a Phase 2 study in solid tumors 2 years from now. GET IT DONE NOW!!!!

Why did FIDO buy so much? I don't know. They also own a lot of EXEL and a lot of other biotechs. It's certainly not Ariad specific.

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