Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:346249, 01/01/06

01/10: (343490) (*COMMENT*)
Hi Zeev: An ok day for me. Things worked out as I suspected. Happens occasionaly.
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Same here, the big run on SYNA help alleviate some other problems. Outgoing cah still at around 15%.... I would not object to a bottom by Wednesday at 10:30 AM (g). I think that is where Jim has his turn.


01/11: (344062) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Are you still looking for 2040 - 2050 in the COMPX, as you mentioned on Sunday?
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That is my worst case, we got down to 2072 or so earlier, that might have been enough, depending how the market views INTC's details.


01/12: (344669) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev it sure seems like the selling is about over and the market wants higher. Do you think we are ready for your 3 to 6 week advance?
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Yes, I do, though we did not reach my target of 2040/50, today we hit 2066, close enough...


01/12: (344953) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
You think the large leg up you are looking for has started?


(Part 2)
Yes, see #msg-5049160 and #msg-5092624.

Message 5049160, 01/07/05: Not changed. Early in December I expected a swoon to the 2040-50 to occur before Christmas it seems to be materializing now (and since we got higher than I expected prior to that, the depth of the swoon may not be that deep). The MSFT bolus of liquidity must have delayed that denouement. From that level I still expect another run to 2275 or so.

Message 5092624, 01/12/05: Yes, I do, though we did not reach my target of 2040/50, today we hit 2066, close enough...


(Part 3)
I am ready and hopefully closer to a month or two and not just a two week pop.
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Hey if we cover 150/200 Naz points in two weeks, that should get us almost back to "schedule". (g.


01/14: (345908) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Do the turnips finally have us off to the races now to 2275-2325ish now? (Meaning this mornings low is the intermediate low?)
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I thought the low was Wednesday at 2066 or so.


01/15: (346163) (*COMMENT*)
zeev

i'm not excluding the probability we might retest the 2000 level...one can observe some real weakness in Msft, IBM
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Do you still see short term a retest of 2000 or has the behavior in the last few days alleviated your fear? Note that on 1/4-1/5 (my own folio had its local low 1/7 and is already nicely up since, though the Naz is still essentially at the same level

Note that we are already in the middle of January and did not see an EPC under .4, that shifts the Christmass map timing probably by two weeks or so, I still think the most likely scenario is a double top before the end of February, just not sure if


01/15: (346174) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev: "...shifts the Christmass map timing probably by two weeks or so.." Since yur last X'mas map had a NAZ top near 2275 bet 1/19-1/25/05, with your latest 2 wks shift, would that NAZ top be 2/2 - 2/9?

By the way, neither your X'mas map points to double top in Jan/Feb frame and we have not had any top so far in Jan. 05. WHere are that new double top before the end of Feb in your latest revision? Just trying to understand your English.
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Yes, probably a first top around that window of 2/2-2/09 (I had 2/09 as the first retrenchment), once we get this in place (best target now is 2/02 for that first top), I'll be in a better position to determine what is next (and if we see some intern


01/15: (346201) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev - What do you think of these two alternative scenarios:

1) We never get a rally, or much of one, and the Nassacre (I notice you don't deem this one worthy of capitalization) will start anyway

or

2) There is no Nassacre, and the Market climbs over the course of the year
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I do not think that the Nassacre can start without grave excesses in optimism as would be illustrated with very low EPC, excessive number of stocks above their short term averages and few others. Nor would a continuing rally without any major retrenc


01/16: (346228) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I have a signal for a "Change of Direction Point" for February 28th. I wanted to give you plenty of notice <g>.
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Is that a peak or a valley?


01/16: (346230) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev

Like you, I believe we soon will start a rally, either from around today's level (70% probability) or from a bit lower (2000 level?)(30% probability)

Last week I mentioned you that I personally found the price/volume action of MSFT, IBM, SAP, Dell not very encouraging. As a result, I thought that a retest of 2000 should not be excluded anymore, hence my 30% probability.

As said before I remain unconvinced of a Nassacre. My worst case scenario is a retest of 2000 later this year.

I do see weakness in the consumer side of the economy, but strength on the business side. IMO, businesses have underinvested in IT the last 3 years, by only focusing on cost cutting. Now they are focused on generating growth in revenues, which means

Just my humble thoughts
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But the consumer is 67% of the end demand, government and business the balance, if consumer retrenches, business will rapidly adjust...as for Government, they are really stretched and not much growth can be expected from that corner.