I agree there is less risk buying MNLU than AEXP. That is why there is a premium here. I disagree on the when to buy part, I see natural gas moving up now, seasonal, and the market turned firmly from bearish to bullish today, so we could see some furious buying here the rest of this month! One of my knife buys, alt energy (HTM) that I added as it crashed the last few weeks, was up 25% in one day today on huge volume, just on simple news of loan guarantees, geothermal power company. First Hurricane news in the gulf, and these two will run up and spike, IMHO.