Intel Corp (INTC)

[wbmw]

Re: the point being that Mercury totals CPU 'shipped' figures while Gartner totals 'Computers sold' figures. Which is why it looks to me like Intel 'STUFFED' the channel again.

Again? How many times can Intel stuff the channel? Joe Osha says that Intel stuffs the channel almost every single quarter, yet I haven't seen any sharp decline in processor shipments, or any huge complaints from their customers - things that I'd expect if what you say is true.

Also don't forget that Intel is on a much larger scale than AMD. AMD can stuff a few hundred thousand CPUs at rock bottom prices to give themselves a nice boost in unit sales, but in order to get the same return, Intel would have to stuff millions of CPUs, and there doesn't seem to be any evidence that Intel has done this. Intel's margins and ASPs have remained relatively stable, though stuffing would suggest quite the opposite. I've also noticed no significant grey market activity, which would suggest that Intel's customers are not offloading CPUs (another tell-tale sign of stuffing). Based on only circumstantial evidence from the Gartner numbers, I don't see how your theory holds much water.

The more likely scenario in my opinion is that Gartner's methodologies are in need of some improvement, since their count is clearly off from what one would expect given other data available.

Re: Lets swap real names. Better yet, if I 'guess' your real name on the thread will you confirm it?

I wasn't requesting your "real" name. Just your alias from SI. I would like to know to whom I'm speaking.

wbmw