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Tuesday, 01/11/2005 9:12:35 PM

Tuesday, January 11, 2005 9:12:35 PM

Post# of 396422
The X-Peculator Call for NDX [12/01/2005]

Captain Z: Hello General. The NDX closed at 1553.4, one point below the ascending trend line, so I believe you opened a short position on the close, right?
The X-Peculator: Yes Captain, as always I followed the plan and sold NDX contracts at the close (4 p.m. ET), futures at 1559.

Captain Z: What do you saw in market action today?
The X-Peculator: After two candles that look like dojis (the close is near or equal to the open - shows indecision and doubt) the market still seems undecided. After the lower open the NDX bounced a bit from the trend line support, broke the line by midday and then tried to come back above it ... but in the end NDX closed below the trend line, so I'm short.

Captain Z: At this hour the futures are at 1566.5, so you're loosing 7.5 points. How do you feel?
The X-Peculator: I feel well, normal activity in a risky business. When I started trading if I won big I would do a party and invite everyone, when I lost I even cried some of the times ... it was a very painful experience. Now I never let the market influence my inside or outside. I could be loosing a lot trading, that if you're beside me you wouldn't notice. The market can eventually take my money again, but it can't make me sad. Although I still love the market, I have other things to love now Razz

Captain Z: But do you have any theory when it comes to dealing with losses?
The X-Peculator: Losses should be cut immediately as they are perceived. But I still don't have a confirmation that this is a loosing trade, even if the early signs are not very good ... I believe in the principle that a good trade is profitable right from the start.

Captain Z: How do you see the Intel news? Can they influence the market?
The X-Peculator: Only in the very short term. The market rarely is surprised and I don't usually react to news. Only a newbie can think that just reading the news will bring him money ... the market doesn't work that way, you must analyse the news in its historical context, not in the media's hype.

Captain Z: Ok, so what is your next step considering this position?
The X-Peculator: Let me show you my trading plan for tomorrow ...

TRADING PLAN

My technical charts for this Call:
http://x-peculator.com/nasdaq_futures_board/viewtopic.php?t=27

My basic motivation for this short sale is a close below the ascending trend line. I have to keep motivated to keep the position. Now, when will the motivation stop?

Of course, when the market doesn’t close below the trend line, which tomorrow stands at 1557.64.

So the stop loss is obvious: If Close>1557.64 Buy to Cover on Close.

And what about the stop profit?
Everybody in the trading business should know not to stop profits, but to let them run ... so I have no rule to stop a profit. I’ll stop it when the market does «something».

_________________
The X-Peculator
www.x-peculator.com

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