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LTE and HSPA technology to dominate mobile landscape until 2020

June 2, 2010

According to a report from WiseHarbor Research, overall, wireless broadband technologies, including LTE, HSPA and the CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO implementation are should be dominating the mobile segment until at least 2020, though the rise isn't expected to hit its peak until about 2015, however.

WiseHarbor, which laid out a number of forecasts for the next ten years, said it expects mobile broadband technologies will actually bridge the digital divide through the current decade for Web and data communications by 2020.

It also added that this will follow the lead that GSM and CDMA 2000 1x achieved in the voice and text messaging segment.

The Asia Pacific region is also expected to lead the world in mobile broadband and LTE device sales beginning in 2011, according to the report, which added that developed nations will lead in devices sold per capita.

On the other hand, global revenues from mobile handsets, wireless modems and embedded modules is expected to peak in in about five years before being hit by dropping selling prices and saturated demand.

Revenue growth will then come from non-traditional wireless devices that will see some increase in connectivity options for mobile users.

“Whereas WiMAX has made significant business progress by occupying the unpaired spectrum that tends to be much less costlier than the paired spectrum used for CDMA-based technologies including EV-DO and HSPA, TD-LTE will still eclipse WiMAX technology by prevailing in the use of unpaired spectrum as well as the paired spectrum already employed commercially by LTE,” the report suggests.

“Overall commitment to TD-LTE technology by China Mobile in particular and significant commonalities between LTE and manufactured products with TDD and FDD modes will marginalize WiMAX in the marketplace over the next few years,” the report says.
WiseHarbor also noted that LTE technology will mirror the success of GSM, but that it won't be until 2016 before LTE accounts for more than 25 percent of mobile broadband device sales.

It also won't match device sales from CDMA-based technologies and HSPA/HSPA+ technologies combined until 2019, said WiseHarbor.

The research firm also noted that the growth of the TD-LTE standard will result in the demise of WiMAX beginning in around 2016-2017.

Last week, Juniper Research said that Mobile LBS will be gaining momentum in some commercial markets over the next several years. The research firm expects that local search and information services will be used by about 1.43 billion mobile subscribers in less than four years from now.

Wireless users want to know where they can find their favorite coffee or snack, where their friends are going, what they are doing and where they should go next.

Brands like Starbucks and the Gap recently implemented mobile location-enabled marketing programs with some pretty good success and appear to be leading the way in that segment, at least for now.

According to JiWire, about 62.8 percent of smartphone users reported that they frequently use mobile apps that require them to give their location, and location-based mobile ads have the highest response rates.

Smartphones mostly use GPS signaling technology, which works by constantly monitoring the cellphone signal with or without the consumers' consent and raising issues of privacy.




http://www.wirelessindustrynews.org/news-jun-2010/1962-060210-win-news.html