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Monday, 01/10/2005 9:32:23 PM

Monday, January 10, 2005 9:32:23 PM

Post# of 396422
The X-Peculator Call for NDX [11/01/2005]

Hi again !

This is the X-peculator Call for Tomorrow:

***************************************

Captain Z: Good evening General, it looks like we had a 0.5 points miss for entering a winning trade.
The X-Peculator: That's right Captain, I was out of the market all day and missed a short at the high of the day (which I thought would be at 1578.5 - NDX cash, 1585 at the futures).

Captain Z: So, what went wrong, are you considering giving a range to enter positions, not an exact value?
The X-Peculator: Actually, today was funny, because the market was absolutely meticulous and my sin was that I wasn't !!!

Captain Z: Explain that for me, please.
The X-Peculator: You see Captain, the resistance we're talking about comes from the low of the previous range, which was exactly 1577.77 at December 9, 2004. I had draw an horizontal trend line but I wasn't very careful, so I put the trend line at 1578.5 and the real value of the line should be 1577.77, not 1578.5 ! That's why I missed the high for today and a 15 point day trade profit on the NDX futures.

Captain Z: Brrr, do you believe the market can behave in such a mathematical manner?
The X-Peculator: Today it did, I didn't, so I didn't profit. But in general, the market is made by people (although programmed machines are getting a growing share of the volume), and a successful trader should run from trying to get the exact high or the exact low of a move ... be happy if you're on the right side of the market, just that.

Captain Z: Ok, let's forget today, what do you see for tomorrow?
The X-Peculator: That's the right attitude captain, the only thing that should persist from the past are the lessons we take for the future, not the wins, misses or losses. Let's think about tomorrow's trading plan...

TRADING PLAN
The technical charts for this plan:
http://x-peculator.com/nasdaq_futures_board/viewtopic.php?t=25

I'm not going with exact numbers for tomorrow. We now have a pretty simple setup that can produce a large move, so I'm going to wait for the market to tell me which way to go.

A close below the ascending trend-line is a short sell signal (the trend line tomorrow will be at 1554.81). A close above 1577.77 will be a long technical signal.

No more considerations today. Close>1577.77 means open long at close. Close<1554.81 means short sell at close. On the next analysis I'll see how to take care of the position...

_________________
The X-Peculator
www.x-peculator.com

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