northam,
I don't think I ever said what is going to take price lower. And I don't believe I ever said when price will tag SMA(320). My opinion is only based on what the charts show has happened to SPY over the last 25 years. The charts for SPY don't say much before that because it didn't exist long enough to have an SMA(200) or SMA(320).
I've also observed -- from the history -- that SPY very often makes a concerted test of SMA(200) after attempting to tag SMA(320) and before making the final drop to eventually tag SMA(320). This is interpreted as a double bottom. The second bottom may be at a higher level because SMA(320) is usually on an incline during a correction. Therefore, if it takes enough days for price to turn back down toward a rising SMA(320), then that price could be a higher low and still tag SMA(320) because it was coming up to meet price -- he redundantly said.
This could all take place within the next week or two or three -- whatever -- provided no new bad news. My opinion is that a second approach of SMA(320) would be the bottom of this correction. I wouldn't be surprised if the market makes a new yearly high after that then goes through another significant corrective cycle before the end of the year. The earliest that the second corrective cycle could start forming would be August/September, after the earnings releases of July. Remember those bad ol' days when it seemed there would be corrections every September/October? I think they are due to come back.
I've looked at $SPX prior to 1995. It often looks pretty ugly -- long periods of consolidation where SMA(200) and SMA(320) play footsie with each other, and trending markets where the two averages maintain some space from each other but are close enough to make you nervous. I suppose those are the years where it made sense for conservative investors to only buy stocks that paid good dividends.
