Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, TECHNICALS - up to ZEEV:343026, 01/09/05

01/04: (341065) (*COMMENT*)
Naz first trading day Jan % losses since 1987:

Year 2001 first trading day dropped 7% *Fed cut 1997 first trading day dropped 0.8% ,then up almost 4% within 4 days and up 5% within 9 days. 1995 first trading day dropped 1% ,then up 1% within 4 days and up 2.5% within 9 days. 1994 first trading day dropped 0.8% ,then up 1.6% within 4 days and up almost 3% within 9 days. 1993 first trading day dropped 0.1% ,then up 2% within 4 days and up 4% within 9 days. 1991 first trading day dropped 0.4% ,then down 3.7% within 4 days and down 4.7% within 9 days. 1989 first trading day dropped 0.7% ,then up almost 2% within 4 days and up 2.3% within 9 days.

Only 1991 was a washout early January.If we use the 1995 pattern[Naz dropped 1.07% yezter],then by Friday Naz could tag 2173+ and by the following Friday could tag 2205+.How about that sportfans.
(*END*)

When was the last time we had the first three days in January down? We may have a first for a long time? I think not.


01/05: (341160) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
RSI-5-day buy signal

http://www.vtoreport.com/rsi.htm


(Part 2)
Interesting to note that since 1997, he never got such a low RSI, and the two times he entered the RSI gambit under 20%, the gains were 12.9% and and 6.7% respectively, amongst the highest gains the gambit has yielded over the last seven years.


(Part 3)
Those 2 times also were a peak to lead to maximum loss in the ndx . If that holds true then we get a bounce off of this signal and then another low print then a bounce leading to a severe correction.
(*END*)

Yup, that is more or less what the 2005 map has...


01/05: (341157) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, the failure and posture of the net nyse highs/lows doesn't bother you?? A print of 0 or lower net new highs/lows is a decent sell signal on the $nyhl.

http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$nyhl&Y=U&B=70&N=A&C=2
(*END*)

No, it just reconfirm that the mood is changing, but the dip buyers are not yet beaten, and the excessive one sided decline in the last two days usually is reversed rapidly. Maybe not before a little more pain early today.


01/05: (341266) (*COMMENT*)
Of course, there's always those "low probability events" (crashes). I went back and calculated the 5-day RSI's for the SPX in October 1987 (no NDX back then). The week before the crash, the RSI dropped to a very low 16.66, recovered the next day to 43, then dropped four straight days to 10, before hitting 3.3 on the day of the crash (10/19).
(*END*)

That is correct, but do you think we have crash conditions in place? An accident in the dollar could cause such, but I don't see that for now.


01/05: (341618) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
Zeev, spike low tomorrow ought to do it for the indices, but we should drop lower after a re-trace up.

I'm looking for 1549 NDX tomorrow, a rise to maybe 1613 NDX, and a drop to around 1529 NDX. We'll see.

3-black crows on the RUT are a clue. SOX is getting near support near term.


(Part 2)
So, you do not expect 2200 on the Naz to be challenged?


(Part 3)
Well, maybe after a trip to 2050 COMP. First I think we may move up to 2154/2164 for options expiration, then back down to 2050 COMP to finish the correction off the high.
(*END*)

Hm, interesting, you expect INTC report to be a "dud"?


01/05: (341671) (*COMMENT*)
Hey ZH, for many weeks we had RSI & MACD divergence with readings in the .5's before dipping into the .4's for a few sessions. Could this qualify as Nazzacre material? Sorry if my question seems redundant, but my thinking is that we saw the equivalent without the major extremes you mentioned...
(*END*)

I think that qualifies as a change in direction from bull to bear being imminent, but a triggering extreme would be useful. This particularly in view of the rapid shift to extremely oversold here in the last three days. I still expect new highs with fewer NH in both exchanges and on lower volume and an extreme EPC to mark the top, probably still in the window of 1/17 to 2/5 or so.


01/07: (342833) (*COMMENT*)
Equity put/call finally rising at the close today, so I'm a little relieved that the rally can "start."

GO, RALLY, GO.
(*END*)

I would have preferred a reading nearer to 1 than to .8 (g).


01/08: (342919) (*COMMENT*)
Do the turnips consider the fact that the commercials are now heavily net short the major stock indexes?
(*END*)

I have not found a good correlation, take 2003, they went heavy short just a month after the rally started. It is probably an early indicator of troubles brewing, and as you know, they can and ave turned on a dime before.


01/08: (342966) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, When you look at Price/Vol. do you have a method to look at the data better than what one normally sees on a chart? If so would you elucidate for me?
(*END*)

In stockchart, you can get "Price by Volume" (shows areas of "congestion", but not very detailed), but when I speak about a price/volume reversal, it is really comparison of the volume on a sharp turn day to average volume (like GILD last Wednesday, a big spike down finishing close to the high on three times recent volume, 5 to 10 times is even better).