Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

PMiles...

Thanks. The reason for the latter question is the paradox we now face between the rising dollar and the rising cycles. We'll soon find out what is real. If the relationship between the dollar and equities is causal and not coincidental, we might experience a bit of gear grinding in the next few weeks.

Scenarios: 1) We might see the more extended bottoming MrCash has suggested. 2) Just as the market was on steroids in December, we might see the cycles subdued substantially as we head into February. 3) The dollar-stocks relationship was coincidental--not causal--and we take the moonshot into March.

Personally I would love to see 3 but reality? January 21 low followed by a fitful few weeks into the Euro low and then rally hard into late March.

The macro-flow of capital between countries and currencies is as important and unstoppable as ocean currents. I sense this flow can propel and slow the Hurst cycles in ways we cannot calculate. Pure speculation of course but it's the weekend. Speculative meditation is what I do for relaxation.

The missing piece is the causal connection between the falling dollar and rising equities. Heard it explained as the repricing of stocks to account for paper inflation. Still don't see how money flowing out of the dollar flows into stocks. Or how the dollar rising would take money out of stocks. If we nail the connection as causal and inevitable, it implies volatility dead ahead.

Black