Toucan...I saw this on yahoo boards. Im no pro at reading balance sheets or doing all the math to connect the dots on this CRV.. I was just wondering if you could look over this post and give me our thoughts. If this math sounds right or maybe not...
After hours of DD and reading the balance sheets and Q1 report for APP i realized one simple thing , which no one realized here :
APP treat CVR as obligation and use mark-to market accounting to evaluate the real value of the CVR (quarter by quarter )!!! so the real EBIDTA for Q1/2010 is 98 145 000 usd...but because of Change in the value of contingent value rights with ( 24 480 000 usd) the Adjusted EBITDA – per CVR drop to $72,407 !!!
So it seems to me that to reach 1.2 billions not depending only of the EBIDTA, but also of the value of the CVR on 12/31/2010 !!!
So...lets accept that APP will make at least 98 millions per Q until the end of 2010( 3 Quarters left) that means 300 millions more Ebidta !!!
We have already 735 962 000 millions EBIDTA at the end of Q1/2010 !!add 300 000 000 more...and we going to have ...1.35 billion Ebidta...
I will Not add the EBIDTA from those 2 new approved cancer drugs(2.5 billions annual sale) !!!! mark that....I am pointing my focus on the possible scenario from WS....as i said they use M2M acounting for the Change in the value of contingent value rights...we have total of 186 millions CVR!!! if they pump the price to up to 1.10 usd per CVR ...then they will make those 200 000 000 usd Adjusted EBITDA !!
So WS will invest 1 usd to get 6 usd premium !!! how this sound to you ?
So what happen during all this drop? they accumulated CVR during this time...using paid basher to post negatives about this CVR !!!
those of you who hold until the end of 2010 will be rewarded huge !! i will say 6 usd per cvr for sure...!!!
IF APCVZ CVR cross 1.10 usd mark that is strong signal that will close at 6 usd at the end of 2010 !!!
I am glad that i bought 120 000 CVR at 0.21 !!
strong buy!
EBITDA CALCULATION:
Net income (loss) $ 11,866 $ (321,421 )
Interest expense (net of interest income) 75,120 570,011
Income taxes (3,703 ) (7,228 )
Depreciation 5,132 42,351
Amortization 9,730 491,658
EBITDA $ 98,145 $ 775,371
Reconciliation to Adjusted EBITDA:
Stock compensation 122 6,250
Merger and separation related costs 270 49,024
Puerto Rico costs * — 32,802
Technology transfer costs * — 2,098
Change in the value of contingent value rights (24,488 ) (133,867 )
Other taxes 176 1,562
Gain on sale of fixed assets (625 ) (284 )
Consulting fees — 600
Foreign currency (gain)/loss (2,421 ) (4,895 )
Puerto Rico closure costs 367 6,144
Other non-cash charges 861 1,157
Adjusted EBITDA – per CVR $ 72,407 $ 735,962
AI
