NCM Services Inc. (NCMV)

[zen222]

Okay, here is what I think is going on:

Yes, without a doubt he will want to uplist to a higher exchange. But understand, he doesn't have to change the share structure to accomplish this. Especially if he already owns the bulk of the O/S and I believe he does. It doesn't take a stock genius to see that the share price has been methodically manipulated over the past 6 years. Never letting the price go up very high and consistent volume every month year after year. The price channel is unmistakable. This to me looks like 6 or so years of well organized systematic accumulation. If someone wasn't buying all this time the pps would have been low sub-penny by now.

So yes, the price could rise considerably on massive buying when there is sufficient market awareness ie filings and or PR's to move to a higher exchange. Remember this stock ran 4700% just from his name being on the change of ownership filing!

Now to be fair, there is always a chance of a reverse split. But there are some very good arguments against that happening here.
So far Schwarz has been a play by the book, file every little thing sort of guy. He is widely known for being a shareholder friendly activist investor. There is no motive to "surprise attack" shareholders with a gottcha reverse split. With a simple share structure change filing no one gets hurt and he keeps his good image.
Also, if he didn't like the share structure before, why hasn't he changed it yet? He's had over 6 years to change it. Six years! I honestly don't believe there will be any changes to the share structure if he hasn't done so already.

So if my assumptions are correct, this is an $800,000,000 hedge fund going public. The Tangible Book Value Per Share with the current O/S (29,869,808) would put us at around $26.78 per share.

With that said, let's play some more what ifs out:
Assuming there is a 1 for 10 R/S. That would put the O/S at 2,986,980 and current share price (.115) to a post split price of $1.15 and would put the TBVPS at $267.80 per share.

I just don't see that. So just for fun, a 1 for 100 R/S would make the O/S only 298,698, post split price would be $11.50 but would make the TBVPS $2,678.00! Not to mention the stock would be illiquid because of the tight share structure. Can you see how this plays out? The more you try to R/S something with tangible book value the crazier things become.

Anything can happen though of course. I'm looking at this as a mega-lotto play and I think the potential here is just awesome. The possibility of being able to own part of a 800 + million dollar hedge fund at these levels is a dream come true. By the way, that 800 million dollar figure is from September of 2008, NCM could very well be closer to a billion dollars by now. Whatever this becomes, knowing what I know about Mark Schwarz I'm excited about anything he folds into GWRX.

What the heck as long as I'm speculating, what if he rolled all his Newcastle funds into GWRX?