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[MikeDDKing]

EGY: Thoughts on earnings.

I'm wondering what people think the diluted EPS flow for EGY will be over the next couple of quarters. Q4 seems pretty easy to estimate at $0.10 to $0.12. I came to this number as follows:
- Q4 sales will be 420,000 barrels vs. 447,000 barrels for Q3. Increased prices will offset the decreased # of barrels thus revenue will be similar to Q3. I haven't taken a detailed look at what the average barrel price will be for Q4 but Q3 was $40.80.
- The expense structure should be similar to Q3.
- Switching to profit oil is a $0.04 to $0.06 hit per the EGY release.
- Q3 diluted EPS was $0.16 therefore the profit should be $0.10 to $0.12.

Q1'05 seems like it will be lower than Q4 because of the increased amount of "profit oil." I'm guessing diluted EPS of something like $0.07.

Earnings should go up sequentially in Q2'05 because there will be more drilling activity and thus less "profit oil." I'm guessing something like $0.10.

Q3 seems trickier because Etame 6H could come on line (assuming success). Also, the amount of "profit oil" is harder to guess.

Obviously, changes in oil prices will affect the estimates.

I'm thinking about buying more. Any thoughts on the earnings estimates.

Mike