Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:340024, 01/02/05

01/01/05: (339948) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
Zeev, You sound pretty convinced we will get at least some privitization of SS. Did you see where AARP is going to launch a big campaign against any privitization?

(Part 2)
I was under the impression that the President was going to spend his "winning" capital on this issue. I hope it does not happen, since I have the secular bear running for at least another 3, maybe even 6 years.

(Part 3)
Zeev, I think there may be a fairly good "healthy debate" over the privitization issue.
(*END*)

With Republicans controlling both houses and railroading anything they want through?


01/01: (339994) (*COMMENT*)
Assuming privatization of SS becomes a reality I would think it will have a positive effect for the market. The question is when. Maybe not until 2006
(*END*)

It surely is going to boost the liquidity side of the equation in a big way. However, I remember some four five years back, when the Japanese allowed their postal system (the "normal saving plan", for many Japanese) to invest outside of Japanese treasuries (which were and still are, yielding zilch), that was supposed to have a positive impact, but it did not prevent the Nikkei from going from around 20000 in 2000 to a new secular bear market low of 7600 in early 2003... Remember that in 1990, the Nikkei was printing around 40,000. If they had moved their social security (or Postal savings) then into the Nikkei, thay would still be waiting 15 years later at 25% of the top, and probably sold in disgust when that bottom was reached in 2003.