Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[lostalot]

Zeev: Donald Luskin has an opposite view to your Jan 05 map (see below). What do you think of his analysis?

Dec. 30, 04 http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Stratlabs/Round11/P105013.asp
A pullback early in January
My overall market forecasting framework hasn't really changed. I'm still bullish on stocks and bearish on bonds for the coming year. But something's telling me that things have gotten a little too easy for the bulls, and that a decent little pullback may be in the offing for the first couple weeks of January.

My technical analyst friend Fred Goodman, who publishes a daily report on my Web site, feels the same way. Over the last couple weeks he's noted that this holiday season's market action has been eerily reminiscent of what happened in 1999. According to Fred, each day's changes in both price and volume have matched to a "T" the changes that occurred on the same calendar days five years ago.

So let's say the 1999 matching pattern continues? What's next? Remember that as the new year of 2000 dawned, stocks sold off hard. They recovered over the following weeks, and went on to make the bubblicious top of March 2000. Fred's not forecasting a March 2000 run for the roses -- but he is forecasting a near-term pullback, and I agree.