re: Pseudo trend
Trend: Tide in, tide out, tide in, tide out
Pseudo-trend: Tsunami
Pseudo-trend is where ordinary cycles are skewed or overwhelmed by persistent or strong fundamental conditions or causes. Example: The rise of oil prices in 2004.
I'm writing off the top of my head, and I look forward to further clarification. I don't know that one could lay out an exact formula for identifying a pseudo-trend unless it is extreme and therefore obvious as with oil prices. When it is on the boundary line, it is probably debateable and difficult to know for sure.
For example, I suspect the current move up is caused by a synchronous move of up cycles *and* excess liquidity from deficit spending, debt spending, printing of Monopoly money (as in the game), and the ability to hide the effects by having an entire world absorb the paper and the Far East provide the capital to fuel our little bonfire of the vanities. So is there a pseudo-trend afoot? Perhaps.
And it is the flip side of this upmove that I'm suggesting could become the pseudo-trend of the century. We are currently enjoying a magnificent recipe for disaster, and I mean literally enjoying it. As individuals, we can do nothing about it of course, so we might as well enjoy the ride. :)
I'm just honing a keen awareness that when the music changes next time because interest rates are moving up hard, the shift in investor consciousness could be swift, powerful, and perhaps unprecedented.
Black
AI
