Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

Re: "the last time we had a 20 wk low coming off an 80 wk (and 4.5 yr) bottom."

There is an important difference between this time and last. Last time the market was emerging from deeply oversold conditions after an extensive multi-month bottoming process.

This time we are moving into much stronger overhead resistance--not insurmountable mind you, but still different from the last time.

As far as I'm concerned, what Airedale speaks, the market does. Still, I don't think this is the time to mortgage your house to take the ride up. It might happen but there are many more warning lights flashing this time.

The biggest warning light I see now is a U.S. economy that is dependent on debt-spending and foreign capital to fuel it. It's a formula for disaster and demands resolution soon (at least within this decade, and who knows, maybe next month).

If this one starts to unravel, it could do so with great speed and power--sufficient to create the pseudo-trend of the century.

Black