Your scenario is wrong! Based on your assumption that 25 million shares held in escrow by Smart Win are in-eligible, (if in fact that were the case) is wrong because its the time line of the shares that make them eligible and not who holds them. You can't possibly make any guess how many were exercised because up till recently nobody including the TA knew and you won't find out till they come out with a PR telling. The PR of the 28th tells of a mailing on the 27th but what you fail to see that PR of the 28th was composed prior to that date.
The results of the Rights Offering will be announced after the results are tabulated and that should be sometime after May 17th +.
In my opinion the Rights Offering will be a total success and the drill program will be full steam ahead upon receipt of the lease.
Instead of guessing numbers based on thin air, why not just wait and see what develops.JMHO
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