I think it's safe to say that the fundamentals in ERHC have changed in one major way.
We thought Sinopec was drilling to see if there would be oil down there. They didn't really drill for oil, from the stand point that they only drilled the gas caps, didn't go deep enough, etc., to confirm oil one way or the other. I also think that they did find the right gas composition for oil, because in the presentation only one well was specified with non-oil type gas, but I'll let that be debated by the spinsters.
I don't think the fundamentals have changed in other ways. No big deal with the AIM, as far as I'm concerened. I know full well what the AIM is all about, and given that most (other than Offor and crew) won't switch over due to trading commissions, etc., it will more or less be a 50/50 split. Some don't get it, but I believe I do, and I'm not worried about it.
And with the AIM, I'm also not very concerened about marginal fields at this point in time.
Yeah, some info was given out at the shareholder's meeting whereby some people would've liked to have known sooner, but I doubt they would have been able to sell in time whether they knew then or know now, the share price would tank in either scenario.
And I also think that Phase II will happen as well. While there may be a 5 to 6 month uncertainty on that, I feel confident that we'll have a Phase II.
I think the main thing that has changed is that we are back to a point in time before the drilling campaign had begun. And so I wouldn't be surprised if history repeats itself, and we climb back up just as we did before as we approach the 'new' Phase II drilling results, which I would hope would be released in a more timely and more relevant manner, i.e. they look for the oil this time.
And likely with the added partner of TOTAL, I think we will get a better visibility of the drilling. Grant it, these things have yet to develop, but if they were developed already, you wouldn't be getting the bargain you have today.
We were more or less at this stage of the game a year go today when the share price was in the upper .30's and we climbed into the upper 80's by the time we were off to the race and drilling.
HISTORY WILL REPEAT HERE.
Krombacher
