Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

>I really appreciate the candor of those willing to share their successes, failures, luck, and foolishness--a good way to learn. <

My experience as an individual investor is that you have to work overtime to avoid the BIG loss. That means staying away from companies where you feel disclosure is very shady, and making sure that you head into the "binary" events with a solid game plan. Puts as insurance are invaluable, in my opinion. Not only can they save you some $$$, they allow peace of mind.

Someone asked earlier how to exit a position where a pivotal event turned negative. From watching some of the colossal flops (and participating in one), the best thing to do in my opinion is sell out right away if a pivotal trial misses it's primary endpoint or an NDA gets rejected. There is usually a bit of a small bounce about 3-4 days after the initial big drop which some desperately interpret as a sign of recovery. That is rarely the case, and a slow but steady decline in share price ensues. You're better off having sold in premarket or by 10 am on the day. As with anything, there are exceptions; but in general, this strategy holds.