While it is impossible to determine how many sells or buys there have been since the share price back on March 1, 2010 was .73 ...
I still hear from folks here things like, "people are running for the exits" or "people are not running for the exits".
So which is it?
Well the share price is down, so one could conclude that people are running for the exits. On the other hand, folks here have said only a small percentage of the shares outstanding have been sold, given that daily volume is so low.
But it is conceivable that someone selling BIG would sell in small increments over many days. Has this been happening?
Well, I took it upon myself to try this methodology. Count the volume on all up days and compare to the volume on all down days.
Here's what I have since March 1, 2010 when the share price was .73 cents.
Up days: 8.1 million shares
Down days: 9.8 million shares
Clearly we have had more shares traded overall on down days than up days. And yet with 700 million shares outstanding or so, seems like the differential of 1.7 million shares does not sound like an exodus. In fact it amounts to only about $1 million or so, if I assume that during this period of time we had an average share price of $0.59
If I were to count up the number of shareholders (starting from the smallest owners going to the top), I wonder what percentage of shareholders I would capture with a million bucks?
Well I have no idea, but if I assume the smallest owners average around a $5k investment in this stock, then you could say that about 200 or so investors sold. That's not even half the membermarks on this board.
And I cannot believe that $5k is the average investment...
...so I must conclude that even with a tanking share price, there has NOT been a mass exodus.
Krombacher
