Tuesday, December 28, 2004 10:12:23 AM
"As for the technical picture, we are getting very close to some major top like behavior in volatility indices. The EPC 21 days moving average has stayed under .58 for more than a month. Many of the BP are flattening out (BPTRAN at 100%, and for quite some time, it cannot go higher….). Advisors bullish are above 62%, an area from which a major bear could start. New highs on the NYSE have also reached levels approaching excesses, but not so, so far on the Naz. VIX and VXN keep hitting new lows."
Zeev, I would concur based on following the ISEE indicator which is a C/P ratio as measured by the non-institutional purchases made on the International Securities Exchange. See their site for further explanation http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplace/statistics/sentiment_index.asp
Two things of note with this indicator lately. First the readings are hitting heights not seen since this past January's peaks. Yesterday's 278 the highest since 304 on 1/20.
Second, a few months ago they started offering intraday readings. Unfortunately, intraday numbers were not available a year ago for comparison. However, in the last month the intradays have started to peg the meter. On 11/26 it hit 325, on 12/10 a whopping 447 (4.47 times as many calls as puts), and then yesterday it hit 334. In each case, the day's end reading was in the 200's.
"While these are all figures that are commensurate with a major peak, these can stay that way for quite some time, and the bears amongst us, should not, IMTO, anticipate a top and go short before a downtrend is actually established."
Good advice, but on the flip side, things could start sliding at any time, no? (Albeit not today by the looks of it)
The following is my Excel-o-vision of the ISEE.
Cheers!
Zeev, I would concur based on following the ISEE indicator which is a C/P ratio as measured by the non-institutional purchases made on the International Securities Exchange. See their site for further explanation http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplace/statistics/sentiment_index.asp
Two things of note with this indicator lately. First the readings are hitting heights not seen since this past January's peaks. Yesterday's 278 the highest since 304 on 1/20.
Second, a few months ago they started offering intraday readings. Unfortunately, intraday numbers were not available a year ago for comparison. However, in the last month the intradays have started to peg the meter. On 11/26 it hit 325, on 12/10 a whopping 447 (4.47 times as many calls as puts), and then yesterday it hit 334. In each case, the day's end reading was in the 200's.
"While these are all figures that are commensurate with a major peak, these can stay that way for quite some time, and the bears amongst us, should not, IMTO, anticipate a top and go short before a downtrend is actually established."
Good advice, but on the flip side, things could start sliding at any time, no? (Albeit not today by the looks of it)
The following is my Excel-o-vision of the ISEE.
Cheers!
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