Cascadia Investments (CDIV)

[timmyjames]

2010 shorts spreadsheet

http://www.4shared.com/document/KTQW2O8j/CDIV.html


1. Ok, here is an excel of all the YTD FINRA data with some extra info and calculations

2. I took the FINRA data, but also showed how many shares were not sold short for the day (total shares - short sales)

3. I also showed the minimum amount of open shorts for that day (column F), but this is using the guise that MMs went into the day even, and that every buy was used to cover shorts

4. I summed the total number of shorts YTD, but please take this number with a grain of salt, as it is a bit fallacious

A. it assumes that all MMs are in the exact same situation as
others since we cannot see who is short selling

B. it assumes all MMs were even at the start of the year

C. it contains "bad" math since I used a simple "sum" formula,
which would allow for MMs to be loaded with shares on days
they did not sell over 50% short (it also doesn't
account for retail buys, and MM swapping).

D. it does not include any potential naked shorting

5. If you look at the highlighted areas, you see the major spikes in pps coincide with days that had large volume and a low short %

6. You can also see the two large t-trade (when VERT appeared) add up to ~1.3 million shares (which seems very close to the 1.2 million the company PRed that they would be selling [this one is totally speculation by me, just pointing it out])

Ok, this is long enough, and you can check it out or not, and quite frankly, it's nothing amazing, but I do think that there are 2 important pieces of information here:

I. when the MMs stop shorting and volume comes in, we
make big moves up

II. the last few "sky is falling" days coincide with
the small float increase (which was PRed and
confrimed by the TA [nice and transparent])

IMO, if the float stays stable, and we get some nice volume, we go back up and fast, but hey, I'm just a normal guy, so make your own opinions